NY-04 House Election Winner
1 live outcome · highest priced: Jeanine Driscoll (R) at 7% · first close Nov 4, 2026 · $15.6K total volume
About this event
This event tracks the outcome of the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election for New York's 4th congressional district (NY-04), measuring which political party or candidate wins the seat.
How the outcomes relate
The event contains markets representing different political parties or candidates competing for a single congressional seat. Since only one winning candidate and affiliated party can claim the seat in the election, only one outcome can resolve Yes, while the others resolve No.
How it resolves
Each market resolves to Yes if the candidate affiliated with the specified political party wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections; otherwise, it resolves to No. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the authority in cases of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Midterm Election Day: — The date the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeanine Driscoll (R) | 7% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| Laura Gillen (D) | 92% | ±0 | Low | Med |