Will the Democratic Party win the NY-04 House seat?
Current price
91.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 91.5%
$5.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines the winning party criterion for the 2026 NY-04 House race, including explicit fallback provisions for candidates who are not formally listed on the ballot as Democrats or Republicans by checking their caucusing intent. Resolution primarily relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with an official fallback to Federal Election Commission data if ambiguities arise. The election timing and standard certification process introduce standard election-resolution timelines, but overall the criteria align straightforwardly with the question.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for New York's 4th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party ballot listing are assigned to a party based on their stated caucusing intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the NY-04 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party by ballot listing or expressed intent to caucus. The market resolves No if a non-Democratic candidate wins the seat. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting once all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If ambiguity exists, the official results reported by the Federal Election Commission (FEC) will decide the outcome.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) as the official fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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