Will the Republican Party win the NY-04 House seat?
Current price
6.75¢
−0.65¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6.75%
$9.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves cleanly based on the winning candidate's party affiliation in the 2026 election for New York's 4th congressional district. The rules provide explicit handling for third-party or independent candidates based on their stated intent to caucus. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, with an official fallback to the Federal Election Commission in case of ambiguity. There are no unusual edge cases or early resolution traps.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for New York's 4th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party affiliation on the ballot are classified by their most recently expressed caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the NY-04 congressional district seat represents the Republican Party. A winning candidate counts as Republican if they have a ballot-listed affiliation with the party, or, lacking a Democratic or Republican ballot listing, if they most recently expressed intent to caucus with Republicans when all 2026 House races are called. The market resolves No if a non-Republican candidate wins the seat. The outcome is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — Date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the official fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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