NC-03 House Election Winner
2 live outcomes · highest priced: Greg Murphy (R) at 83% · first close Nov 4, 2026 · $27.5K total volume
About this event
This event tracks the outcome of the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election for North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District (NC-03). Markets measure which political party or candidate will win the congressional seat in the 2026 midterm elections.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of mutually exclusive markets representing political parties or candidates competing for a single congressional seat. Since only one candidate and party can win the NC-03 seat, at most one market can resolve Yes, while the others will resolve No.
How it resolves
Each market resolves to Yes if the candidate affiliated with the specified political party wins the NC-03 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections; otherwise, it resolves to No. A candidate's party is determined by ballot affiliation or caucus intent at the time all 2026 House races are called. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the fallback source if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the official fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Murphy (R) | 83% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| Raymond Smith Jr. (D) | 17% | ±0 | Low | Med |