Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?
Current price
16.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 16.5%
$8.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution tracks the party affiliation of the winning candidate in North Carolina's 3rd congressional district in the 2026 midterms. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission certified data acting as a clear fallback in ambiguous scenarios. Clear mechanics handle third-party or independent candidates based on their stated intent to caucus at the time all House elections are called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a candidate representing or caucusing with the Democratic Party wins the North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District seat in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the NC-03 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party, determined by their ballot listing or their most recently expressed intent to caucus when all 2026 House races are called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate represents or caucuses with another party. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity exists, the official results reported by the Federal Election Commission (FEC) decide the outcome.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the Federal Election Commission (FEC) if ambiguity exists
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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