Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?
Current price
83¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 83%
$19K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party winning North Carolina's 3rd congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules establish clear fallback procedures for independent or third-party candidates by looking at ballot listing or stated intent to caucus at the time all House races are called. Initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which involves some discretion in determining when reporting is unified, but any ambiguity defaults cleanly to official results from the Federal Election Commission.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win North Carolina's 3rd congressional district House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party ballot listing are assigned to a party based on their most recently expressed caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate for the NC-03 U.S. House seat is affiliated with the Republican Party, either by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or most recently expressed intent to caucus with Republicans at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not affiliated with the Republican Party. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — Election day for the NC-03 congressional district seat.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the official fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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