MT-01 House Election Winner
2 live outcomes · highest priced: Aaron Flint (R) at 67% (−1 pts in 24h) · first close Nov 4, 2026 · $92.6K total volume
About this event
This event tracks the outcome of the 2026 election for Montana's 1st congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Markets in this event measure which political party or candidate will win the congressional district seat.
How the outcomes relate
Each market corresponds to a specific political party or candidate seeking the seat. Because a single seat has only one winner, at most one party market can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if a candidate affiliated with the specified party wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections; otherwise, it resolves to No. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation, or by their most recently expressed caucus intent for candidates lacking a major party label, at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission (FEC) results used in cases of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Midterm Election Date: — The 2026 midterm elections will take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) as the official fallback.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Flint (R) | 67% | ▼ 1 | Low | High | |
| Sam Forstag (D) | 35% | ▲ 1 | Low | High |