Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat?
Current price
34.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 34.5%
$58.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on standard congressional election outcomes for Montana's 1st Congressional District in 2026. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is handled, including explicit instructions for non-major-party candidates based on ballot listing or their stated caucus intent. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible media reporting, which requires decider judgment as no specific list of news outlets is defined, though an official fallback to the Federal Election Commission provides a definitive backstop if reporting conflicts arise.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Montana's 1st congressional district (MT-01) in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates lacking a major party ballot listing are assigned to a party based on their most recently stated caucus intentions once all House races are called.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Democratic Party wins the MT-01 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or, for other candidates, their most recently expressed intent to caucus with the Democrats at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves to No if a candidate from another party wins. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission results serving as the fallback source in cases of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place on this date.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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