Will the Republican Party win the MT-01 House seat?
Current price
65.5¢
−1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 65.5%
$34.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party of the winning candidate for Montana's 1st Congressional District in the 2026 midterms. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is handled, including explicit instructions for non-major party candidates based on their stated intent to caucus. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission reporting serving as a definitive backup source if ambiguity arises. The mechanics are standard and clearly articulated.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Montana's 1st congressional district House seat in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the MT-01 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. A winning candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation, or if not listed as Democrat or Republican, by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Election day for the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source in case of ambiguity.
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