MO-04 House Election Winner
1 live outcome · highest priced: Jordan Herrera (D) at 3% · first close Nov 4, 2026 · $73.2K total volume
About this event
This event tracks the outcome of the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election for Missouri's 4th Congressional District (MO-04). Its markets measure which political party or candidate will win the seat in the midterm elections.
How the outcomes relate
The event contains markets representing different political parties or candidates competing for the single congressional seat. Because only one candidate wins the election, only one party outcome is expected to resolve Yes, while the other resolves No.
How it resolves
Each market resolves Yes if the candidate affiliated with the specified party wins the MO-04 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or stated caucus intent when all 2026 House races are called. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the definitive source if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Midterm elections take place
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or officially the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Herrera (D) | 3% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| Mark Alford (R) | 96% | ±0 | Low | Med |