Will the Republican Party win the MO-04 House seat?
Last captured price
96.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 96.15%
$42.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves clearly based on which party wins the Missouri 4th Congressional District seat in the 2026 midterms. The primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, with an explicit official fallback to the Federal Election Commission if results are ambiguous. Specific rules define party affiliation for independent or third-party candidates by looking at ballot listing or stated intent to caucus when all House races are called. Timing and outcome criteria align standardly with election certification.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Missouri's 4th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the MO-04 seat is affiliated with the Republican Party, based on ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or their most recently expressed intent to caucus when all 2026 House races are called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate belongs to or intends to caucus with another party. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission (FEC) results serving as the sole source if reporting is ambiguous.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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