Will the Democratic Party win the MO-04 House seat?
Current price
3.45¢
+0.3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.45%
$30.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 Missouri 4th Congressional District election. The primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting once all House races are conclusively called, with a definitive fallback to official Federal Election Commission certified results if any ambiguity arises. Clear guidelines are provided for party attribution, explicitly specifying how third-party or independent candidates will be treated based on their ballot label or stated caucus intentions.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win Missouri's 4th congressional district House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party ballot listing are assigned based on their most recently expressed intent to caucus.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Democratic Party wins the MO-04 seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus at the time all House races are conclusively called. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins the seat. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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