MO-02 House Election Winner
2 live outcomes · highest priced: Ann Wagner (R) at 77% (−1 pts in 24h) · first close Nov 4, 2026 · $66.2K total volume
About this event
This event tracks the outcome of the 2026 election for the U.S. House of Representatives seat in Missouri's 2nd Congressional District (MO-02). Its markets measure which political party or candidate will win the congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections.
How the outcomes relate
The event is structured with one market per political party or affiliated candidate contesting the seat. Because a single candidate wins the congressional seat, only one outcome can resolve Yes, while the other resolves No.
How it resolves
Each market resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 seat in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed caucus intent when all 2026 House elections are called. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission results serving as the sole resolution source if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date when the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ann Wagner (R) | 77% | ▼ 1 | Low | Med | |
| Fred Wellman (D) | 23% | ±0 | Low | High |