Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?
Current price
22.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 22.5%
$36.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on which party wins Missouri's 2nd Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting calling the race, with official Federal Election Commission reporting serving as a secondary fallback if any ambiguity arises. For candidates not appearing on the ballot under a major party label, resolution explicitly attributes them to the Democratic or Republican party according to their most recently stated caucus intention once all 2026 House races are called. Because the outcome follows standard election calling with clear fallback criteria for third-party or independent winners, unexpected resolution pathways are unlikely.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Missouri's 2nd congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a ballot affiliation are assigned based on their stated intent to caucus.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate for the MO-02 seat represents the Democratic Party based on their ballot affiliation, or if an unaffiliated candidate has most recently expressed intent to caucus with Democrats when all House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate represents the Republican Party or any other non-Democratic affiliation. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the sole source if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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