Will the Republican Party win the MO-02 House seat?
Current price
77.5¢
+0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 77.5%
$29.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on the winning candidate's party in the 2026 MO-02 House race. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with a definitive fallback to official results from the Federal Election Commission if reporting is contested or ambiguous. The rules clearly handle potential independent or third-party candidates by looking at ballot affiliation first and publicly expressed caucusing intentions second, evaluated once all House races are called. Overall, resolution conditions are well-defined with minimal risk of unexpected interpretations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives during the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate winning the MO-02 House seat is affiliated with the Republican Party, either by ballot listing or by their most recently expressed intent to caucus if not listed as Democrat or Republican. It resolves to No if a candidate from another party wins the seat. The outcome is decided by a consensus of credible reporting once all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If reporting is ambiguous, the market resolves solely based on official results reported by the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback for ambiguous results
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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