CA-45 House Election Winner
2 live outcomes · highest priced: Derek Tran (D) at 94% · first close Nov 4, 2026 · $46.1K total volume
About this event
This event covers the outcome of the CA-45 congressional district race in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections, tracking which political party or candidate will win the seat.
How the outcomes relate
Each market corresponds to a political party winning the single CA-45 congressional district seat. Because only one candidate wins the seat, at most one market can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
Each market resolves to Yes if the candidate affiliated with the specified party wins the CA-45 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections; otherwise, it resolves to No. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm election day: — The midterm elections take place on this date.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Tran (D) | 94% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| Chuong Vo (R) | 7% | ±0 | Med | Med |