Will the Democratic Party win the CA-45 House seat?
Current price
93.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 93.5%
$21.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party affiliation of the candidate winning California's 45th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is determined, including specific fallback criteria for candidates without a major-party ballot listing based on their stated intent to caucus. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with a named official fallback in the Federal Election Commission if reports are ambiguous or contested. While relying on journalistic consensus involves some subjective judgement before official certification, the clear mechanics and official government fallback ensure the outcome tracks the standard election result.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the California's 45th congressional district (CA-45) seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the CA-45 House seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party, based on their ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or most recently expressed intent to caucus when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not affiliated with the Democratic Party under these criteria. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the sole source if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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