Will the Republican Party win the CA-45 House seat?
Current price
6.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6.5%
$24.6K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market resolves based on which party's candidate wins California's 45th congressional district in the November 2026 midterm elections. Initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a specific designated media outlet, leaving discretion in judging when a race call is definitive, though official Federal Election Commission reporting acts as a clear backstop. For candidates without a major party label on the ballot, party alignment will be determined by their stated caucus intent. California district counts often take weeks to finalize, so resolution timing may extend significantly past election day until all races are called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win the California's 45th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the CA-45 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party, based on their ballot listing or their most recently expressed intent to caucus if not listed as Democrat or Republican. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with a different party. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If credible reporting is ambiguous, the Federal Election Commission's official results will decide the outcome.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if ambiguous
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.