CA-23 House Election Winner
2 live outcomes · highest priced: Jay Obernolte (R) at 98% · first close Nov 4, 2026 · $102.7K total volume
About this event
This event tracks the outcome of the 2026 election for the U.S. House of Representatives seat in California's 23rd congressional district (CA-23). Markets evaluate which political party or candidate will win the congressional seat.
How the outcomes relate
Markets correspond to political parties competing for the single CA-23 House seat. Because only one candidate wins the election, only one party market can resolve Yes, while others resolve No.
How it resolves
Each market resolves to Yes if a candidate affiliated with that specific political party wins the CA-23 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections; otherwise, it resolves to No. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or intent to caucus when elections are conclusively called. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source for official results.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Obernolte (R) | 98% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| Tessa Lynn Hodge (D) | 1% | ±0 | Low | Med |