Will the Republican Party win the CA-23 House seat?
Current price
97.95¢
−0.2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 97.95%
$38.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market resolves on the party winning California's 23rd congressional district in the 2026 midterms. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is handled, including standard caucus fallback rules for independent or non-major-party candidates. Outcome determination relies primarily on a consensus of credible media reporting, with an explicit official fallback to the Federal Election Commission if reporting is disputed or ambiguous. Because official election results take time to certify and reporting consensus requires some decider judgment, resolution may experience standard post-election waiting periods, but overall the criteria align straightforwardly with the question.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for California's 23rd congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation are classified by their stated caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the CA-23 seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party, determined by ballot listing or stated intent to caucus with Republicans when all 2026 House races are called. The market resolves No if a candidate of another party wins. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — Date of the election.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source in case of ambiguity.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.