Will the Democratic Party win the CA-23 House seat?
Current price
1.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.15%
$64.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market straightforwardly resolves based on which party wins the CA-23 congressional seat in the November 2026 midterm elections. The primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, falling back to official Federal Election Commission certified data if ambiguity arises. California races often take extended time to count ballots, and the market explicitly waits until all House races are called to evaluate any third-party caucus affiliations, but the core resolution path is clear and aligns well with the headline question.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a candidate affiliated with the Democratic Party wins the CA-23 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a ballot-listed affiliation count toward a party if they most recently expressed intent to caucus with that party by the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate for California's 23rd congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or stated intent to caucus at the time all House races are conclusively called. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. Outcome determination is based on a consensus of credible reporting, with official United States government results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the definitive source in cases of ambiguity.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Election day when the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback authority.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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