CA-01 House Election Winner
2 live outcomes · highest priced: Mike McGuire (D) at 95% · first close Nov 4, 2026 · $46.8K total volume
About this event
This event tracks the outcome of the CA-01 U.S. House of Representatives race in the 2026 midterm elections. Markets measure which political party or affiliated candidate will win the congressional district seat.
How the outcomes relate
Markets represent political parties or affiliated candidates competing for a single congressional seat. Because only one candidate can win the seat, at most one market can resolve Yes, while all other competing markets resolve No.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if the candidate winning the CA-01 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the specified party; otherwise, it resolves to No. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House elections are called, or by expressed intent to caucus for unaffiliated candidates. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission serving as the official fallback source in case of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike McGuire (D) | 95% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| James Gallagher (R) | 4% | ±0 | Low | Med |