Will the Democratic Party win the CA-01 House seat?
Current price
95.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 95.15%
$35.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly outline how the winning candidate and party affiliation are determined, including explicit provisions for independent or third-party candidates based on caucus intent. Resolution initially relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, with an official fallback to the Federal Election Commission if results remain ambiguous. California election counting typically requires several weeks to finalize, and resolution depends on the timing of calls across all House races, which introduces a moderate potential for delay.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the CA-01 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The market's resolution considers a candidate's party affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections is a member of the Democratic Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If a candidate has no ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties, their affiliation is based on the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus at the time all House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not a member of the Democratic Party. The market resolves based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- Election Date:
Resolution source
Federal Election Commission
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