Will the Republican Party win the CA-01 House seat?
Current price
3.6¢
+0.4¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.6%
$11.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines how the winning party will be determined, including explicit provisions for ballot affiliation and caucus intent for independent candidates. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting once all House races are called, with official Federal Election Commission records acting as a definitive fallback if any ambiguity arises. Election calls can take time, but the mechanics align directly with standard expectations for congressional race outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win California's 1st Congressional District seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate winning the CA-01 House seat is affiliated with the Republican Party, as determined by their ballot-listed affiliation or most recently expressed intent to caucus when all 2026 House races are called. The market resolves to No if a candidate not affiliated with or caucusing with the Republican Party wins. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — The election day when the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with Federal Election Commission official results as fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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