AZ-01 House Election Winner
2 live outcomes · highest priced: Amish Shah (D) at 82% (−1 pts in 24h) · first close Nov 4, 2026 · $70.1K total volume
About this event
This event tracks which political party or candidate will win the Arizona's 1st Congressional District (AZ-01) seat in the U.S. House of Representatives during the 2026 midterm elections. Individual markets measure whether a specific political party wins the seat.
How the outcomes relate
Each market corresponds to a specific political party seeking to win the single congressional seat. Since only one candidate and party can win the seat, at most one market can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the AZ-01 House seat belongs to or affiliates with the specified party; otherwise, it resolves No. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed caucus intent when all 2026 House races are conclusively called. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission results serving as the fallback in cases of ambiguity.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date on which the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the Federal Election Commission (FEC) if there is ambiguity.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amish Shah (D) | 82% | ▼ 1 | Low | Med | |
| Jay Feely (R) | 18% | ±0 | Low | Med |