Will the Republican Party win the AZ-01 House seat?
Current price
17.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 17.5%
$25.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly outlines that the party affiliation of the candidate winning the Arizona 1st Congressional District seat in the 2026 midterm elections decides resolution. Primary resolution depends on deciders evaluating a consensus of credible news reporting, which requires subjective assessment of media calls, though an official fallback to Federal Election Commission reporting is specified if ambiguity arises. The rules explicitly provide clear instructions for attributing non-major-party candidates based on ballot listing or stated caucus intentions at the time all House races are conclusively called. Because the resolution conditions match standard expectations for an election outcome market, a participant is unlikely to encounter unexpected surprises.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Arizona's 1st Congressional District seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the AZ-01 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. Candidates without a Democratic or Republican ballot listing count toward a party based on their most recently expressed intent to caucus at that time. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — Date of the election
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the official fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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