Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat?
Current price
82¢
−0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 82%
$44.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 midterm election for Arizona's 1st Congressional District. The criteria for determining party affiliation are clearly established, including explicit handling for candidates who run without a major party label by referencing their stated caucus intent. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with official government reporting from the Federal Election Commission serving as a fallback if the consensus is ambiguous. Timing risk is standard for a congressional election, and the rule definitions leave little room for surprise.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a candidate affiliated with the Democratic Party wins the election for Arizona's 1st congressional district in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the AZ-01 House seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party, determined by ballot listing or most recently expressed intent to caucus when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not affiliated with the Democratic Party. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official United States government results from the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Midterm elections date: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) as the official fallback.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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