AR-03 House Election Winner
2 live outcomes · highest priced: Steve Womack (R) at 95% · first close Nov 4, 2026 · $32.5K total volume
About this event
This event tracks the outcome of the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election for Arkansas's 3rd congressional district (AR-03). Its markets measure which political party will win the seat in the midterm elections.
How the outcomes relate
Each market corresponds to a specific political party seeking to win the congressional seat. Because only one candidate and party can win the AR-03 seat, at most one market can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
Each market resolves to Yes if a candidate affiliated with that market's designated party wins the AR-03 seat in the 2026 midterm elections; otherwise, it resolves to No. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or stated intent to caucus when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting, or solely on official results from the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Midterm Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) as the official source if ambiguity arises
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Womack (R) | 95% | — | Low | High | |
| Robb Ryerse (D) | 4% | ±0 | Low | Med |