Will the Democratic Party win the AR-03 House seat?
Current price
4¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4%
$11.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible media reporting to call the election winner, with official Federal Election Commission records serving as the decisive backup if reporting remains ambiguous. Party affiliation is clearly defined by the ballot label, with a clear fallback to stated caucus intention if an independent or third-party candidate wins. Because party affiliation and resolution are assessed only when all 2026 House races nationwide are conclusively called, finalizing the outcome may face delays if other races across the country require extended recounts or legal challenges.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the Arkansas's 3rd congressional district (AR-03) seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections. Candidates without a Democratic or Republican ballot listing are classified based on their stated caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate of the AR-03 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party, determined either by their ballot listing or by their most recently expressed intent to caucus when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with any other party or caucuses with another party. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by the official results reported by the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — Date the midterm elections take place
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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