Will the Republican Party win the AR-03 House seat?
Current price
94.95¢
+0.75¢ · 24h
Implied probability 94.95%
$21.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on which party wins Arkansas's 3rd congressional district in the November 2026 midterm elections. The rules specify that the outcome relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission records acting as a definitive fallback if any ambiguity arises. Standard party affiliation definitions and caucusing rules for independent candidates are clearly outlined, so resolution criteria closely match standard expectations for an election market.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win the Arkansas's 3rd congressional district (AR-03) U.S. House of Representatives seat in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate winning the AR-03 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. The market resolves to No if the winning candidate is affiliated with another party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House elections are called; candidates without ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation are assigned based on their most recently expressed intent to caucus. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission (FEC) results used if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date of the election as stated in the rules.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission (FEC) if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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