Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
2 live outcomes · highest priced: Shutdown & Democratic Party at 91% · first close Feb 1, 2027 · $151.4K total volume
About this event
This event tracks joint political outcomes combining whether another US federal government shutdown occurs by January 31, 2026, with which political party wins control of the US House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of joint propositions pairing a government shutdown with different winning parties for the House of Representatives. Because only one political party can win control of the House under the rules, at most one market in this event can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
Each market resolves Yes only if both conditions are met: the US Office of Personnel Management announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, and the specified political party wins control of the House in the 2026 midterm election. A party controls the House by winning a majority of voting seats or, if no majority exists, having its affiliate elected as Speaker. If either condition fails, the market resolves No.
Key dates
- Shutdown determination deadline: — 11:59 PM ET deadline for OPM to announce a federal government shutdown.
- Independent caucus announcement deadline: January 4th at 11:59 PM ET of the calendar year following the election, after which undetermined independents do not count toward party totals.
Resolution source
OPM's Operating Status page, official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shutdown & Democratic Party | 91% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| Shutdown & Republican Party | 9% | ±0 | Low | Med |