Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?
Current price
90.55¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 90.55%
$66.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This compound market requires both conditions to occur for a positive outcome. The first condition depends on a specific, named official webpage from the Office of Personnel Management confirming a shutdown due to lapsed appropriations before January 31, 2026. The second condition covers the 2026 midterm House elections, which may take weeks or months to finalize due to state certification timelines, potential runoffs, independent member caucus decisions, or a Speaker vote if no party wins an outright majority. For the election component, resolution relies on official state election data, Congress, and reporting consensus.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?). The rules and resolution criteria are as follows: 1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31? This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/). 2. Which party will win the House in 2026? This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether two conditions both occur: another US federal government shutdown is announced by January 31, 2026, and the Democratic Party wins control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if both underlying conditions are met. First, the U.S. Office of Personnel Management must announce another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Partial shutdowns count, but office closures for holidays or weather do not. Second, the Democratic Party must win control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm election by winning a majority of voting seats, or through the affiliation of the first elected Speaker of the 120th Congress if no party holds a majority. The market resolves to No if either condition fails. Resolution relies on the OPM Operating Status page for the shutdown condition, and official information from state electoral authorities, the U.S. Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting for the House election.
Key dates
- Shutdown deadline: — Deadline for OPM to announce a federal government shutdown.
- Independent caucus declaration deadline: — Deadline for independent representatives to announce their intent to caucus.
Resolution source
OPM Operating Status page, official information from state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.