Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?
Current price
8.85¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 8.85%
$85.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This compound market links two distinct events with detailed resolution standards. The first condition depends strictly on whether the Office of Personnel Management announces a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026. The second condition covers the 2026 House midterms, clearly defining majority thresholds, runoff inclusions, party affiliations, and independent caucus allocations, with a fallback to the elected Speaker if no outright majority exists. Resolution for the congressional leg may take time if runoffs occur or independent affiliations remain unannounced until early January 2027, but the criteria and official sources are explicitly specified.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?). The rules and resolution criteria are as follows: 1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31? This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/). 2. Which party will win the House in 2026? This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures the combined outcome of whether another US federal government shutdown occurs by January 31, 2026, and whether the Republican Party wins control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes only if both conditions are met: the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, and the Republican Party wins control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm election. Partial shutdowns count, but office closures for holidays or weather do not. Control of the House requires winning a majority of voting seats in the 2026 midterms, including independents who caucus or intend to caucus with the party; if no party wins a majority, control goes to the party affiliated with the first elected Speaker of the 120th Congress. The market resolves to No if either condition fails. Resolution is determined by OPM's Operating Status page for the shutdown condition, and by official information from state electoral authorities, the U.S. Congress, and credible reporting consensus for the House condition.
Key dates
- Government shutdown deadline: — OPM must announce a shutdown by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
- Independent caucus announcement deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET for independent members to announce caucus intentions to be included in seat counts.
Resolution source
OPM's Operating Status page, official information from state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting
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