Will the Democratic Party win the WA-03 House seat?
Current price
89.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 89.5%
$27.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market resolves on which party wins Washington's 3rd Congressional District seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an immediate certified certification, with official Federal Election Commission records serving as an unambiguous fallback. The rules specifically address third-party or independent winners by assigning their affiliation based on ballot listing or stated caucus intent. While Washington conducts elections entirely by mail—often resulting in days or weeks of ballot counting before a winner is definitively called—the criteria directly match standard expectations for an election outcome market.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market tracks whether the Democratic Party wins the WA-03 U.S. House of Representatives seat in the 2026 midterm elections, including unaffiliated candidates who intend to caucus with Democrats.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Democratic Party wins the WA-03 seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation qualify as Democrats if they most recently expressed intent to caucus with the Democratic Party when all 2026 House races are called. The market resolves to No if a candidate affiliated with another party, such as the Republican Party, wins. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. In cases of ambiguity, resolution relies on official results from the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the official fallback.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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