Will the Republican Party win the WA-03 House seat?
Current price
8.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 8.5%
$27.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 House race for Washington's 3rd Congressional District. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is determined, including how to handle independent or third-party candidates via their stated intent to caucus. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, with an explicit fallback to official Federal Election Commission certified results if ambiguity arises. The mechanics are standard for congressional election markets and present minimal risk of an unexpected outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market asks whether the Republican Party will win the WA-03 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The market's resolution depends on the winning candidate's party affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if a Republican Party candidate wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections. The market resolves No if a candidate from any other party wins the WA-03 seat. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If a candidate lacks a ballot-listed affiliation with the Democratic or Republican parties, their party is determined by their most recently expressed intent to caucus with one of these parties at the time all House elections are conclusively called. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- Election Date:
Resolution source
Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.