Will the Democratic Party win the VA-01 House seat?
Current price
57¢
+2.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 57%
$46.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the winning party of Virginia's 1st Congressional District in the November 2026 midterm elections. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is determined, including how non-major-party candidates will be assigned based on their stated intent to caucus at the time all House races are called. Initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with an explicit fallback to official Federal Election Commission reporting if ambiguity arises.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party candidate will win the VA-01 seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party affiliation on the ballot count toward the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Democratic Party wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections. It resolves to No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins. A candidate without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation is classified based on the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with when all 2026 House races are called. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — The election takes place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if ambiguous
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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