Will the Republican Party win the VA-01 House seat?
Current price
42¢
−1.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 42%
$26.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party winning the VA-01 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterms. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission reporting serving as a definitive backup if any ambiguity arises. Clear fallback mechanisms exist for candidates lacking a standard party listing, attributing them based on stated caucusing intentions once all House races are called. The criteria and official backstop minimize ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Virginia's 1st Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party ballot listing are assigned to a party based on their most recently stated caucus intentions.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the VA-01 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party, determined by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or stated caucus intent when all House races are called. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the official results reported by the Federal Election Commission decide the outcome.
Key dates
- Election day: — The date the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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