Will the Democratic Party win the UT-02 House seat?
Last captured price
6.35¢
+0.4¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6.35%
$19.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on which party wins the 2026 midterm election for Utah's 2nd Congressional District. The primary determination relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, which requires deciders to judge when widespread agreement is reached, though an explicit fallback to official Federal Election Commission certified data exists if reporting is contested or ambiguous. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is determined, specifying that independent or third-party candidates will be counted for a major party if they have publicly indicated an intent to caucus with that party by the time all House races are called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Utah's 2nd Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate who wins the UT-02 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Candidates without a listed major party affiliation count as Democrats if they most recently expressed an intent to caucus with Democrats when all House elections are called. The market resolves to No if the winning candidate is affiliated with the Republican Party or caucuses with them under the same standard. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the authority if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — Date of the election
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback authority
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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