Will the Republican Party win the UT-02 House seat?
Current price
93¢
−1.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 93%
$12.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market resolves on the winning political party for Utah's 2nd Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules specify how third-party or independent winners will be treated by looking at ballot listing or expressed intent to caucus when all House races are called. Resolution initially relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with an explicit fallback to official Federal Election Commission certified data if reporting is ambiguous.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Utah's 2nd Congressional District seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate winning the UT-02 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation counts as a Republican if they most recently expressed intent to caucus with Republicans. The market resolves to No if a candidate from another party wins. The election outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.