Will the Democratic Party win the TX-35 House seat?
Current price
58.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 58.5%
$23.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party winning the TX-35 House seat in the November 2026 midterms. Resolution initially relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission results serving as a clear fallback if ambiguity arises. Party affiliation mechanics are clearly specified, noting that ballot-listed party takes precedence, followed by caucus intent at the time all House races are called if an unaffiliated candidate wins. Resolution could be delayed until all national House races are determined if party affiliation requires verification via caucus intent, but the criteria for determining the winner and party attribution are well-defined.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Texas's 35th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate winning the TX-35 House seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or identifiable affiliation, or by the party they most recently intended to caucus with if unaffiliated, at the time all 2026 House elections are called. The market resolves to No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date of the election specified in the rules
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the official fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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