Will the Republican Party win the TX-35 House seat?
Current price
40.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 40.5%
$29.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market resolves straightforwardly on which party wins the TX-35 congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules specify how non-major party candidates are attributed based on their stated intent to caucus when all House races are called. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which leaves room for decider interpretation regarding what constitutes a consensus, though an official backstop via the Federal Election Commission is specified if reporting is ambiguous. Overall, the conditions directly match the core question with clear handling for edge cases.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins the Texas 35th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections, determining party affiliation based on ballot listing or stated caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the TX-35 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party, determined by their ballot listing or most recently expressed intent to caucus. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with the Democratic Party or another party. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting once all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If ambiguity remains, the market resolves solely based on official results reported by the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date of the election for the TX-35 congressional district seat.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission (FEC) if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.