Will the Democratic Party win the TX-28 House seat?
Current price
91.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 91.5%
$5.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party winning the TX-28 congressional seat in the 2026 midterms. Resolution is primarily based on a consensus of credible media reporting, which involves some decider discretion, but it includes a clear fallback to official results from the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. Rules also clearly handle non-major party affiliations by defining party membership via ballot listing or caucus intent when races are officially settled.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a Democratic candidate will win the U.S. House of Representatives election for Texas's 28th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party label are classified based on their stated caucusing intention.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Democratic Party wins the TX-28 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves to No if a candidate not affiliated with the Democratic Party wins the seat. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot affiliation, or if not listed as a Democrat or Republican, by the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus when all 2026 House races are called. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, falling back to official results from the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Election day specified in the rules for the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission (FEC) if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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