Will the Republican Party win the TX-28 House seat?
Current price
7.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 7.5%
$7.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on which party wins the TX-28 House seat in the 2026 midterms. The primary resolution path relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission figures serving as the definitive fallback if ambiguity arises. The rules explicitly define party affiliation mechanics, noting that candidates without a standard major-party ballot label will be attributed based on their stated caucusing intentions once all House races are called. Timing depends on election certification or race calls, which can take days or weeks in close contests, but the overall criteria are straightforward and match standard election expectations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win the TX-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major-party ballot listing are assigned to a party based on their stated caucusing intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the TX-28 congressional seat in the 2026 midterm election is affiliated with the Republican Party. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with another party, such as the Democratic Party. A winning candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House races are called, or by their most recently expressed intent to caucus if not listed as Democrat or Republican. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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