Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat?
Current price
82.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 82.5%
$27K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party winning the Texas 15th congressional district in the 2026 midterms. Resolution is primarily based on a consensus of credible reporting, with an explicit fallback to official Federal Election Commission certified data if ambiguity arises. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is handled, including explicit guidance for candidates without a ballot-listed major party affiliation based on caucus intent when all House races are called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a Democratic candidate will win Texas's 15th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate winning the TX-15 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. The market resolves to No if the winning candidate is affiliated with any other party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. Candidates without a ballot affiliation to the Democratic or Republican parties will be classified by their most recently expressed intent to caucus. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — The date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission results used if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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