Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat?
Current price
17.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 17.5%
$39.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines how the winning party is determined, including explicit fallback rules for independent or third-party candidates based on their stated intent to caucus. Resolution primary relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with a named official fallback to the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity arises. The timeline is tied to the 2026 midterm election outcomes, presenting standard and well-understood electoral mechanics with minimal surprise risk.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a Republican candidate wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Texas's 15th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates lacking a ballot party affiliation are classified by their most recently expressed intent to caucus.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the TX-15 House seat in the 2026 midterms is affiliated with the Republican Party on the ballot or has most recently expressed intent to caucus with Republicans. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with or intends to caucus with another party. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting once all 2026 House elections are conclusively called, with official Federal Election Commission results serving as the sole source if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Midterm election day: — The date the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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