Will the Democratic Party win the TX-09 House seat?
Current price
16.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 16.5%
$13.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the winning party of the Texas 9th Congressional District House race in the November 2026 midterms. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission certified data explicitly named as the fallback source if ambiguity arises. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is handled, including standard provisions for independent candidates based on their stated intent to caucus at the time all House elections are called. Election certification or race calling timelines can sometimes cause brief settlement delays, but the resolution terms and fallback authority are direct and standard for congressional election markets.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the election for the U.S. House of Representatives seat representing Texas's 9th congressional district in the 2026 midterms.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a Democratic candidate wins the TX-09 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party ballot listing count as Democrats if they most recently expressed intent to caucus with the Democratic Party when all 2026 House races are conclusively called. The market resolves to No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. The outcome is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission serving as the official fallback source in cases of ambiguity.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm election day: — The date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the official fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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