Will the Republican Party win the TX-09 House seat?
Current price
83.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 83.5%
$23.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party affiliation of the winning candidate for Texas's 9th congressional district in the 2026 midterms. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, backed up by official certification from the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. Clear tie-breaking mechanics are outlined for candidates who are not formally listed on the ballot as Democrats or Republicans, designating their party by their most recently declared caucusing intent at the time all House races are conclusively called. Overall, the rules align closely with standard election mechanics with minimal ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins the Texas 9th Congressional District U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party ballot listing are assigned to a party based on their most recently expressed caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Republican Party wins the TX-09 seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party, such as the Democratic Party, wins. A candidate without a ballot-listed party affiliation counts toward a party based on their most recently expressed caucus intent when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission results serving as the fallback source in cases of ambiguity.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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