Will the Democratic Party win the PA-08 House seat?
Current price
72¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 72%
$8.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on which party wins the PA-08 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is determined, including how to handle independent or non-major party candidates based on ballot listing or stated intent to caucus. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission reporting serving as a definitive backup source if any ambiguity arises. Election results and party affiliations for congressional seats are standard, well-documented outcomes with minimal surprise risk.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a Democratic candidate wins Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections, including candidates without a ballot-listed party who intend to caucus with Democrats.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the PA-08 seat is ballot-listed as a Democrat or expresses intent to caucus with the Democratic Party when all 2026 House elections are called. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins and does not intend to caucus with Democrats. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity exists, resolution relies solely on official results from the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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