Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat?
Current price
29¢
+0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 29%
$12.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 midterm election for Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible media reporting, with an explicit fallback to official Federal Election Commission certified data if the outcome is contested or unclear. The rules clearly define party affiliation for independent or third-party candidates by looking at ballot listing or their stated intent to caucus at the time all House races are finalized. Resolution timing depends on standard election certification or definitive calls across all congressional races, which may take days or weeks in close contests, but the resolution pathway is straightforward and aligns with standard expectations for congressional election markets.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the PA-08 seat is affiliated with the Republican Party, either by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus if not listed as Democrat or Republican. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins. The election result is decided by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity exists, the official results from the Federal Election Commission serve as the sole decider. Affiliation is assessed when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) as the sole official fallback.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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