Will the Democratic Party win the PA-07 House seat?
Last captured price
87¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 87%
$26.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves clearly based on the party of the candidate winning the PA-07 U.S. House seat in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections. The rules specify how third-party or independent candidates are assigned to major parties based on stated intent to caucus. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, with an explicit fallback to official Federal Election Commission certified results if any reporting ambiguity arises. Standard election tabulation timelines apply, but there are no unexpected edge cases or hidden clauses.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Democratic Party wins the PA-07 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves to No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House elections are called, or by their most recently expressed intent to caucus if they lack a ballot affiliation with the Democratic or Republican parties. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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